The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 (ACTUAL, Federal Reserve). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, with the press conference on October 28 at 14:30 ET, so the decision falls in the week after this one. The Fed calendar lists no speeches for October 19–23. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.10% on October 15, the latest value in FRED (ACTUAL), down from 5.24% on October 9.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,659.44, down 1.09% on the day and 1.95% below the prior Friday's close of 7,811.54 (ACTUAL, FRED; changes calculated). The week's closing high was 7,807.24 on Monday and the low was Friday's close. Rate-hike probabilities from third-party tools are not cited here because they could not be verified against a primary source.
September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with core CPI at +0.3% and +2.6% (ACTUAL, BLS). September PPI for final demand rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year (ACTUAL, BLS). Advance retail sales for September were $745.0 billion, up 0.8% on the month (ACTUAL, Census), and industrial production rose 0.7% with capacity utilization at 76.9% (ACTUAL, Federal Reserve). This week the BLS publishes only State Employment and Unemployment (September) on Tuesday and Usual Weekly Earnings (third quarter) on Wednesday. Census releases New Residential Construction on Tuesday: August housing starts were 1,275,000 and building permits 1,394,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (ACTUAL, Census). Third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays follow on October 29 (BEA).
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Twelve banks and asset managers across three parts. Fees and loan growth carried the quarter, trading cooled from Q2, and capital ratios eased at most.
Guidance is each company's own outlook, not a reported result.
Inflation picked up, driven by gasoline (ACTUAL, BLS, released Wednesday October 14).
Sources: TVT Bank Signal Parts 1–3 and TVT earnings reports (from company 8-K, 6-K and release filings); SEC filings JPM outlook, UNH, J&J, ASML, TSMC, Progressive, Truist, Citizens; BLS CPI, BLS PPI, Census, NY Fed, Federal Reserve G.17, FRED.
Netflix's second-quarter results are already in and checked against guidance. Revenue of $12.56B was 0.1% below the $12.574B forecast (calculated), which the company called in line, and the operating margin of 33.4% was 0.8 points above the 32.6% guidance (calculated). The company attributed the margin beat to the timing of expenses. What is open is the third quarter: guidance of $12.86B in revenue and a 33.2% operating margin, which is 0.2 points below the Q2 actual. For the full year Netflix narrowed its revenue range to $51.0B–$51.4B from $50.7B–$51.7B and kept the 31.5% margin.
Texas Instruments' second-quarter results are already in and checked against guidance. Revenue of $5.46B was $0.06B above the top of the $5.00B–$5.40B range, and EPS of $2.14 was $0.09 above the top of the $1.77–$2.05 range (differences calculated). The release said EPS included a 5-cent benefit that was not in the original guidance. What is open is the third quarter: guidance of $5.65B–$6.15B in revenue and $2.23–$2.57 in EPS. Texas Instruments did not state a full-year outlook in the release text checked.
The target range is 3.75–4.00% since the September 16 decision (ACTUAL). The FOMC meets October 27–28, and the Fed calendar lists no speeches this week. Third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays follow on October 29 (BEA).
September CPI rose 3.7% on the year, with core at +2.6%, after 3.4% and 2.4% in August (ACTUAL, BLS). September PPI for final demand rose 6.3% on the year (ACTUAL, BLS). Neither report is scheduled this week.
The 10-year yield was 5.10% on October 15 (ACTUAL, FRED). Treasury sells $13B of 20-year bonds (a reopening) on Wednesday and $26B of 5-year TIPS on Thursday, both at 13:00 ET. The 2-, 5- and 7-year note auctions come the week after.
August housing starts were 1,275,000 and building permits 1,394,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (ACTUAL, Census). NAR reported pending home sales up 0.3% on the month in August (ACTUAL). Both September reports land Tuesday.
GE Aerospace, RTX and Northrop Grumman report Tuesday before the open, joined by GM and 3M. Lockheed Martin and Union Pacific follow Thursday. Industrial production rose 0.7% in September (ACTUAL, Federal Reserve).
Netflix guided the September-quarter operating margin to 33.2% against a June-quarter actual of 33.4% (GUIDANCE vs ACTUAL). Texas Instruments guided revenue to $5.65B–$6.15B against a $5.46B June-quarter actual (GUIDANCE vs ACTUAL). Tesla, IBM and Meta report the same Wednesday evening.